The Maturity Wall Moves to 2026 — Why It Matters

November 2025

Loan Maturities Push Into 2026

Hundreds of billions of commercial real estate loans are coming due over the next 18 months. For many owners, the clock that was ticking in 2024 has simply been reset to 2026. The commercial real estate industry has long talked about a “maturity wall” of debt, an upcoming wave of loans needing refinance or payoff all at once. According to a recent GlobeSt analysis, this wave has shifted outward, with a large portion of loans originally expected to mature in 2024–25 having been extended such that the peak of maturities is pushing into 2026. The article notes that refinancings and extensions have decompressed short-term risk but have not eliminated the underlying pressure. For owners and investors in the self-storage, multifamily, industrial, retail, and office sectors, this has consequences. It means that the borrowing climate and the timing of capital events are shifting, and sponsors should plan accordingly.

The Reset, Not the Relief

To review the facts: lenders and borrowers have used “extend and amend” strategies to push near-term maturities out. For example, a CRE Daily brief reports that approximately $936 billion in CRE loans are scheduled to mature in 2026, a nearly 19% increase over 2025’s revised estimate. Many borrowers chose extensions because refinancing remains challenging, given today’s higher costs and more stringent underwriting. Interest rates are higher, property values are under pressure in some sectors, and lenders are more disciplined. The maturity calendar hasn’t disappeared; it’s merely been postponed. While the “maturity wall” delay allows for some short-term breathing room, it adds to future refinancing burdens. Consider the borrower who financed a property in 2021-22 at a 3% floating rate—today that same loan might reprice above 7%, with a lower valuation and tighter lender leverage.

What 2026 Means for Borrowers and Lenders

Looking ahead to 2026 and beyond, the ramifications for the borrowing market are significant. First, the sheer volume of debt coming due means competition for capital and refinancing slots will intensify. Borrowers with weaker fundamentals or whose properties have not weathered the recent cycle may face wider spreads, more onerous covenants, higher prepayment penalties, or even forced sales. Second, because much of the debt being extended now carries higher interest costs or newly amortizing structures, the cost of capital is likely higher, and that will squeeze returns and/or require more sponsor equity. Third, for lenders, especially banks facing regulatory capital and reporting changes, the risk of rollover defaults, restructurings, and special servicing will stay elevated. CRE Daily also observed that upcoming bank reporting changes could reduce market transparency just as maturities peak. For owners, this means refinancing execution risk is very much on the table.

The Market Ripple

So, why should every CRE owner care? Even if your property does not mature exactly in 2026, the overall market is being shaped by it. Cap rates and spreads are being influenced by the upcoming refinancing wave; lenders are allocating capital with the crowded calendar in mind, and the terms available now will likely assume more stress in underwriting. Owners who wait until later in 2026 to address their debt stack may find themselves competing for capital in the most crowded market in a decade. For owners of cash-flowing assets—like many in the self-storage and industrial sectors—this means now is the time to double-check your debt assumptions. What if borrowing rates stay higher for longer? Are your lease-up and NOI assumptions still realistic? Are you prepared if your lender offers an extension, but on tougher terms? Being proactive in refinancing strategy, planning, and market knowledge gives you an edge.

Final Thoughts

At Talonvest, we view this as a moment to help clients turn refinancing risk into opportunity through early strategy, data-driven underwriting, and trusted capital relationships. In today’s slower demand environment, the “maturity wall” isn’t theoretical—it’s a real calendar event. It represents a timing risk for large portions of the CRE universe. For the owners, investors, and managers who anticipate and strategize around it—adjusting underwriting, building contingency plans, lining up capital, and staying flexible—it will be less about crisis and more about opportunity: renegotiating terms, accessing capital before the crowd, and positioning your property as a lower-risk borrower in a more selective market. As we move toward 2026, the key question is no longer “Will there be a wall?” but “How prepared am I when I run into the wall?”